U.S. stocks rebounded to close firmly higher Tuesday as investors shrugged off hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and continued to monitor the war in Ukraine.
The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 4,511.81, and Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 250 points, or about 0.7%, to 34,807.86. The Nasdaq Composite was up nearly 2% to 14,108.82. The moves come on the back of a choppy session Monday that saw all three indexes cap last week’s winning streak to close lower after Powell signaled the central bank was prepared to act more aggressively to rein in inflation. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed to yield 2.372%.
The Fed’s top leader reiterated in comments at the National Association for Business Economics Monday that policymakers will lean into higher short-term interest rates “as needed” to mitigate fast-rising price levels, with a goal of bringing inflation back down to an annual pace of about 2% while maintaining low unemployment.
“We just experienced the first rate increase over which it promises to be many, many more,” Research Affiliates CEO Chris Brightman told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. “Whether there is a 50 bps or a 25 bps increase next is not the point so much as that we’re going to see continued tightening all through this year and likely into at least the first half of 2023 — and where it stops, nobody knows, including the Fed.”
The tightening could bring the yield curve, the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates of fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury, closer to inverting, Brightman pointed out. An inverted yield curve, when the short-term rates exceed the long-term rates, has been a signal of a pending economic recession in the past.
The Fed is “going to tighten until something breaks,” Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management, told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday. “That’s either breaking the back of inflation or growth is going to slow.”
Powell’s comments come just a week after investors met the central bank’s long-anticipated move to lift its benchmark Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% (to a target range of 0.25% to 0.50%) with temporary relief after the bump came in on par with what market participants had expected.
Despite providing some clarity to traders who for months have waited for the Fed to take steps forward on tightening monetary conditions, geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe and its economic toll continue to muddy the bank’s path ahead in fighting inflation. The Fed is also tasked with beginning quantitative tightening, or rolling assets off its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet.
The CPI print is “not going to look kind,” Allianz Investment Management’s head of ETFs Johan Grahn told Yahoo Finance Live. “That will be the indicator that the Fed is going to hang their hat on.”
Elsewhere in markets, Tesla was in the spotlight on Tuesday as shares of the electric vehicle giant soared amid the opening of its Berlin Gigafactory and delivery of the first 30 Model Y cars made in Europe.
Shares of Tesla were up 7.9% to $993.98 a piece, notching the biggest pop in three weeks.
Russia’s war in Ukraine also continued to be front-and-center for investors. Kyiv has refused to surrender its heavily-attacked port city of Mariupol to Russian forces as the civilian death toll climbed. Energy and commodity prices spiked amid the latest developments on the crisis.
Officials in both countries have sporadically signaled a possible negotiation but attempts at talks have so far proven unsuccessful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned recently that if discussions with Vladimir Putin failed, it could mean the start of a third world war.
