OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) may not be publicly traded, but the world’s most valuable startup is increasingly making waves in the stock market.
Just last week, OpenAI sent shares of e-commerce companies Shopify Inc (SHOP). and Etsy Inc. (ETSY) soaring after unveiling an instant buy option in ChatGPT. Then a blog post detailing new features the company is using internally sent a fresh wave of jitters through software stocks like Atlassian Corp. (TEAM), already reeling from fears about AI disruption.
Such market-moving sway, usually reserved for behemoths like Apple Inc. or Nvidia Corp., is the latest sign of OpenAI’s rising influence on a wide variety of stocks even though there’s little indication the startup, which was recently valued at $500 billion, plans to list its shares anytime soon. That’s made OpenAI’s announcements and events — like the developer conference it’s holding on Monday — critical for traders.
“Software and internet investors are keenly focused on where OpenAI will go next and how disruptive it could be,” said UBS (UBS) analyst Karl Keirstead. As OpenAI continues to expand, he said, “the consensus view is that it will have to diversify more aggressively beyond ChatGPT subscriptions.”
Investors will be looking for clues about those plans at OpenAI’s third annual DevDay, which kicks off at 10 a.m. in San Francisco. The event could drive another round of stock moves with potential gains for partners or infrastructure providers and declines for companies in businesses the artificial intelligence giant is pushing into.
The Sam Altman-led company is likely to unveil more consumer AI agents that could include a “more robust travel booking agent,” Keirstead wrote in a research note on Oct. 1. OpenAI could also unveil an AI browser, the analyst said.
“Even though we can’t play OpenAI directly, this could be an important event, since any information we learn about its plans or products will help investors assess the landscape,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder, which has about $10.5 billion in assets. “Maybe we learn that companies seen as being at risk aren’t as threatened as we think, or maybe we get insight into the next big AI play.”
Of course, OpenAI has been a factor for market pros ever since ChatGPT ignited a mania for AI in late 2022. The subsequent race to beef up computing power has fueled the rise in stocks of chipmakers like Nvidia and cloud-computing providers like Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Yet while fears about AI’s disruptive potential have long been present, they’ve mostly been theoretical. That’s starting to change.
OpenAI is looking for new ways to leverage ChatGPT’s more than 700 million users, with the vast costs of running the business far outweighing revenue generated from subscriptions. The company had $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025 but still lost $2.5 billion, according to the Information.
The startup has developed AI-based tools used internally that can help streamline research, make contract documents searchable, personalize responses for sales leads and handle customer support, Chief Commercial Officer Giancarlo Lionetti wrote on Sept. 29.
The post sent software stocks including Klaviyo Inc. (KVYO), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU), HubSpot Inc. (HUBS), Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) and ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. (ZOM.F) tumbling, with each falling more than 9% last week. A Goldman Sachs (GS) basket of software-as-a-service stocks posted its worst week in two months with a 3.3% decline.
Of course, there are plenty who view the potential threat from OpenAI and other AI startups as overblown. OpenAI’s release of a social app last week for making and sharing AI-generated videos didn’t have the same effect among social media stocks. While Meta Platforms Inc. underperformed last week, the shares of Snapchat owner Snap Inc. rose more than 3%.
While there is risk of disruption to software makers from the technology, “the negative stock reactions appear disconnected to the fundamentals,” Bank of America (BAC) analysts led by Brad Sills wrote in a note to clients on Oct. 2.
Even so, OpenAI’s influence in the stock market is likely to grow alongside its expansion, even if it remains privately held, according to Kevin Cook, senior strategist at Zacks Investment Research.
“OpenAI will be looked back on as one of the most influential companies in the AI transformation, and it is certainly an odd situation for a private company to have so much impact,” Cook said. OpenAI “can be more agile and creative, and that leads to the ripple effect we see in other companies, both good and bad.”
