Copper (HG=F) prices climbed closer to all-time high levels on Tuesday as indications of more measured Trump administration tariffs extended the industrial metal’s rally this year.
Futures on the London Metal Exchange gained after topping $10,000 per metric ton in the prior session, while contracts on New York’s Comex increased to hover near a record.
On Monday, President Trump hinted that the reciprocal levies expected on April 2 may not be as widespread as anticipated, easing worries of a global slowdown.
Copper, considered a proxy of growth trends, is up more than 24% year to date in the US and 14% higher in London on speculation that Trump’s tariffs could include metal imports. The expectation has created a price difference across the Atlantic, spurring increased shipments to the US.
“Front-running the potential tariff has unleashed a wave of near-term demand for copper housed in the US,” LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist said.
Anywhere between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons of copper are expected to reach the US in the coming weeks, according to Bloomberg estimates. The trend to front-run copper isn’t new, as it’s already been happening with gold, which recently hit new highs.
White House initiatives to become more independent from sources abroad have also put the spotlight on domestic supplies.
In February, the Trump administration said the “United States faces significant vulnerabilities in the copper supply chain, with increasing reliance on foreign sources for mined, smelted, and refined copper.”
Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick was ordered to investigate “whether imports of copper, scrap copper, and copper’s derivative products threaten to impair national security.”
The metal is used in everything from defense weapons to infrastructure, electric vehicles, and electronics.
Outside of tariffs, China, the world’s largest importer of copper, has announced plans to stimulate its economy, which would boost demand.
“Beijing’s pro-growth agenda is beginning to show up in the economic data, evidenced by recent better-than-expected retail sales, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment,” Turnquist said.
The last time copper spiked to new highs was in May 2024.
“The brief bump in copper prices from a year ago was based a bit on speculation when the realization of limited supplies became apparent, but this slow-burning rally will be based on real supply and demand fundamentals, especially supply,” Eric Saderholm, managing director of exploration and co-founder of American Pacific Mining, told Yahoo Finance.
Goldman Sachs analysts recently reiterated they’re bullish on the commodity.
“For now, we also maintain our bullish $10,200/t Q4 2025 forecast, on the back of strong electrification demand, China stimulus offsetting the drag from tariffs, and slower mine supply growth,” Goldman Sachs’ Eoin Dinsmore wrote.
Other analysts are even more bullish, with Kostas Bintas of Mercuria Energy Group floating the possibility of $12,000 to $13,000 per ton.
