The odds of extreme cold this winter in the US, Asia and parts of Europe are climbing, threatening to boost energy bills for consumers already grappling with high costs and economic uncertainty.
With the season’s start just weeks away, meteorologists see many of the same conditions that led to one of the warmest winters on record last year for the Northern Hemisphere. But there’s one key difference: Signs are emerging that the polar vortex, the girdle of winds around the Arctic, could weaken and allow frigid air to spill southward.
A deep freeze would likely mean higher prices for power and natural gas, adding to the cost burden for ratepayers as inflation remains stubbornly high and major economies show signs of persistent weakness. In the US, a jump in power demand from data centers and artificial intelligence has sent wholesale electricity costs soaring — an increase that’s being passed on to consumers.
Winter is the most turbulent time of year for weather, said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. The fluctuating conditions have major consequences for a wide variety of markets and industries, from energy and transportation to retail. The Northern Hemisphere’s worst weather also arrives with a series of immovable deadlines, including Christmas and Lunar New Year, when planes, people and cargo need to arrive on time.
“Further into December, keep an eye on the polar vortex,” said Dan Hart, a meteorologist at London-based OpenWeather Ltd.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that temperatures will plunge early enough in the winter to have a significant impact on energy demand. Last year, the polar vortex didn’t break apart until March.
But now, a set of winds called the quasi-biennial oscillation is blowing to the east. That movement may spark a phenomenon known as sudden stratospheric warming — a rapid, dramatic rise in temperature in a layer of the atmosphere — that ultimately leads to a weakening of the polar vortex, according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research. If sudden stratospheric warming occurs earlier than it did last year, “that would have important implications for the overall winter weather,” Cohen said.
US Chill
For the US, winter will likely come in a bit cooler than normal and definitely colder than last year, said Matt Rogers, president of commercial forecaster Commodity Weather Group.
The northern tier of the country from the Pacific Northwest to central New England will likely be cooler than average, with the highest chance of below-normal temperatures in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes, CWG predicts. The South will probably get near-normal or slightly warmer-than-average temperatures, including Texas, which saw its power grid collapse in 2021 when a breakdown in the polar vortex unleashed a winter storm that killed more than 200 people.
There is a chance for more snow in the Midwest and Northeast this year, with the exception of large cities along the coast from Washington to New York, according to AccuWeather Inc.
Intense cold would also put some US winter wheat crops at risk. Plants can be damaged by frigid temperatures if they aren’t insulated under a layer of snow. This could cut yields early next year.
China Gas Threat
La Niña, a cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s surface, could bring on a colder winter across many regions of China, which raises the risk of gas shortages, Morgan Stanley analyst Jack Lu wrote in a note to clients.
“As a result, gas consumption could spike along with gas price hikes for both wholesale and retail,” Lu wrote.
That lines up with China’s official winter forecast, which is predicting below-normal temperatures across the country’s south and northeast.
The similarities to last year’s weather map also raise the chances for a chill in southern Japan, while the north is milder and the west remains near average, according to Emma Blades of New Zealand’s MetService, which provides data and analysis for power traders in Japan.
Those looking to hit Japan’s ski slopes this season can be cautiously optimistic. There’s potential for heavy snowfall and good snowpack development this winter on the Sea of Japan side of the country, which will also help fill hydroelectricity catchments, said Blades.
Europe Cold Risk
While forecasters and major weather models are projecting a mild winter on average in Europe, there is growing evidence that the relatively temperate conditions could be punctured by frequent cold spells this winter, especially in northern and central Europe.
A growing number of simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which is widely considered to have the most consistently reliable global weather models, show that outcome. They’re projecting unusually weak high-altitude polar winds in November and December.
European gas prices have swung in recent weeks as traders assess the potential intensity of the chill. While strong seaborne imports have helped to top up storage, a cold snap earlier in the heating season has already caused some countries to tap into inventories.
Depending on the severity of the cold, it could pose a risk to winter-wheat crops in the European Union, one of the world’s biggest exporters of the grain. The crop lies dormant over the winter, but can lose some of its hardiness when temperatures frequently fluctuate and suffer damage during a deep chill.
“The odds of are heightened” of that kind of polar vortex weakening happening this winter, said Rob Hutchinson, a meteorologist at Swiss-based weather analytics firm Meteomatics AG. But he said the effect will depend on the timing and location of any frigid air that breaks free from Arctic latitudes — and if it can overcome other warm trends.
“We’ve always got the competing factor of global warming, and it’s just ever harder to get deep cold into Europe,” he said.
