October’s retail sales data was strong, with the headline figure rising 0.4%. FWDBONDS LLC chief economist Chris Rupkey joins Catalysts to discuss the implications for the broader market and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Rupkey notes that the Fed has already provided the market with “a game plan,” referencing a statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating the central bank is in “no hurry” to cut interest rates. Rupkey suggests the Fed may be “a little bit taken aback by the speed of the Trump administration” and the economic changes it could usher in.
However, Rupkey believes it is still “a little bit too early to judge what is ultimately going to come out of the new administration.” Despite this uncertainty, the economist sees the strong consumer demand revealed in the retail sales data as a positive signal for the economy’s trajectory.
Rupkey predicts the economy will grow at a 2.5% pace in 2024, with GDP reaching 3% in the fourth quarter. He attributes this optimistic outlook to consumer resilience.
