Fresh data out Thursday showed the US economy remains on track to grow at a solid pace through the end of 2024.
S&P Global’s flash US composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors, came in at 54.4 in September, down from 54.6 in August. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 54.3.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the data shows the US economy’s growth is chugging along to start the fourth quarter.
“October saw business activity continue to grow at an encouragingly solid pace, sustaining the economic upturn that has been recorded in the year to date into the fourth quarter,” Williamson said in the release. “The October flash PMI is consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of around 2.5%.”
Williamson added that sales are being stimulated by “competitive pricing,” which led the selling price inflation for goods and services down to the lowest level since May 2020.
“These weaker price pressures are consistent with inflation running below the Fed’s 2% target,” Williamson said.
This upbeat outlook falls in line with the strong projections market participants currently have for the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) print. After a strong September jobs report and several better-than-expected retail sales prints, the economics team at Goldman Sachs is currently projecting the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.1% in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.4% in the third quarter.
The above-expected growth projections have helped quell recession fears that percolated in early August after the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, triggering a commonly followed recession indicator.
“Our probability of recession models showed marked improvement in September, reversing much of the recent rise,” Oxford Economics senior US economist Matthew Martin wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “Against this backdrop, our conviction in our above-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2025 increased.”
Overall, the economic growth data over the past month hasn’t swayed markets on what the Fed will do in November, with traders currently pricing in a 95% chance the central bank lowers interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
However, markets have moved to price in fewer Fed rate cuts over the next year. Markets see the Fed likely making one fewer cut than was priced in on Oct. 4 and two fewer cuts than markets were projecting on Sept. 18, the day the Fed slashed rates by half a percentage point.
This has coincided with an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX), which has added about 50 basis points over the past month to hover near 4.2%. In some instances, a push higher in yields can be a headwind for stocks. But equity strategists have argued that if the increase in yields comes alongside solid economic growth, it will likely be a welcome sign for stocks.
“A gradual move higher [in yields] … for the right reasons, with the expectation of higher growth, historically has tended to be good for those earnings growers,” Gargi Chaudhuri, BlackRock Americas chief investment and portfolio strategist, told Yahoo Finance. “So keeping quality at the core of your portfolio remains really important.”
