Bitcoin continued its recovery on Sept. 10, reaching $58,000 to trade 8% above its four-week low of $53,955. Despite this recovery, Bitcoin investors “remain unconvinced” in the short term, according to an analysis from Glassnode.
Investors are interacting less with centralized exchanges (CEXs) with “contracting volumes across the board,” according to a Sept. 10 report published by Glassnode.
The report noted that CEXs remain central indicators of investors’ speculative activity and price discovery in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency market. They evaluated onchain volumes aggregated across CEXs to determine investor activity and speculation appetite.
Running a similar 30d/365d momentum cross-over for exchange-related inflows and outflows, the market intelligence firm noted that the monthly average volume has fallen well below the yearly.
“This underscores a decline in investor demand and less trading by speculators within the current price range.”Bitcoin exchange volume momentum. Source: Glassnode
Glassnode believes that the recent market drawdown dampened market activity. Applying the 90d MinMax scalar metric to evaluate spot trading volumes on exchanges, the analysts concluded that the spot volume momentum across CEXs is continuing to diminish.
“This adds more weight to the idea that there has been a notable decline in trade activity over the last quarter.”
Moreover, using the CVD metric—which estimates the net balance between market buying and selling pressure in spot markets—Glassnode also found that selling pressure from investors has been increasing over the last three months, “contributing toward the downward tilt in price action.”
Diminishing investor appetite is also apparent across the institutional landscape, with the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “exhibiting net outflows,” the report also noted.
“Net capital flows in USD into spot Bitcoin ETFs have softened since Aug 2024 and are now reporting an outflow of $107M/week.”US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows. Source: Glassnode
This is corroborated by data from Farside Investors, which shows that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a combined net outflow of $1.186 billion between Aug. 27 and Sept. 6, with minor inflows of $28 million recorded on Sept. 9.
Additional data from CoinShares reveals that outflows from Bitcoin investment products totaled $643 million during the week ending Sept. 6.
CoinShares attributed this to negative sentiment driven by stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data from last week, which increased the likelihood of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
According to trading firm QCP Capital, the US Consumer Price Index expected on Sept. 11, along with the first Presidential debate between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, could see the return of Bitcoin volatility.
