Bitcoin’s (BTC) price continues to coil in post-halving trading as the past 24 hours have seen the top crypto trade in a narrowing range between $63,520 and $65,285 while traders await the next market-moving catalyst.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
The sideways price action comes as the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC saw its first day of outflows on Thursday as $22.6 million was pulled from the fund, while BlackRock’s IBIT recorded its second consecutive day of net neutral flows, according to data provided by Farside.
The declining demand from ETFs means the positive pressure on Bitcoin’s price has diminished significantly, leading to the consolidation witnessed over the past two months.
“This week’s crypto market continues to drift bearish,” said Rachel Lin, co-founder and CEO of SynFutures, in a note to Kitco Crypto. “The bears have sold into the strong bounce back we saw earlier in the week, and Bitcoin’s much-anticipated Bitcoin halving came and went without any significant impact on the price action.”
Lin noted that a look at the Bitcoin price chart during previous halving cycles shows that “the weeks after the halving will see a sideways or declining trend until BTC breaches the prior high, which currently stands at 73,600.”
“Nearest support continues to remain at the 60,000 level,” she said. “Its importance was visible last Friday when the price rebounded sharply after hitting that zone. If the price remains above 60,000, we will likely see sideways trending action. However, a breakdown below that level could trigger strong selling.”
“If the 60,000 level were to fall, the next strong support zone lies between 50–52K, indicating a 15% fall in BTC price,” Lin warned.
Looking at the broader crypto market, Lin said “Crypto fundamental developments were mixed this week.”
“We received positive news about the crypto ETF approval in Hong Kong, which will likely start trading on April 30,” she noted. “On the other hand, in the U.S., federal authorities have arrested the two co-founders of the Samourai wallet, a Bitcoin wallet service, on money laundering charges.”
“On the macro side, we must pay attention to the significant US economic data published on Thursday and Friday,” Lin added. “The GDP growth rate on Thursday came below expectations, and the CPE Price Index is expected on Friday. How US equities react to these data will, in turn, impact the crypto market.”
Lin said she expects Bitcoin’s price action to remain volatile while ranging sideways in the near term. “Currently, 60,000 and 67,500 remain the two important levels to watch. A break of either will give us a clearer picture of what to expect next,” she concluded.
Based on the current chart setup, market analyst TradingShot said that Bitcoin is preparing to start what has historically been the “most aggressive part of the bull cycle.”
“Bitcoin has successfully tested and held the Mayer Multiple (MM) Mean (red trend-line) and is now consolidating,” TradingShot said in a TradingView update. “As you can see by the green arrows, this is the point where historically the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle begins, as even in the occasions where the MM Mean broke marginally (July 2013), the rebound that followed was even more impressive and strong.”
“We can actually get a progression out of those sequences. If we measure the Fibonacci extensions from the MM Mean’s Low and the High before it, we can see that Cycle 1 peaked marginally above Fib 2.0, Cycle 2 was +2 Cycle 1’s Fib, i.e. 4.0, and Cycle 3 was +2 Cycle 2’s Fib, i.e. 6.0,” he said. “We can assume, of course always with the relative degree of uncertainty that Cycle 4 might be +2 Fib more of Cycle 3’s Fib, i.e. 6.0 + 2.0 = 8.0.”
Stated more simply, TradingShot said this setup points to a Bitcoin high of $300,000 in the current cycle.
“Unrealistic or not, that gives us a $300000 projection and is undeniably technical as those are the exact High-to-Low measurements at the time it touched the MM Mean,” TradingShot concluded.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,710, an increase of 0.5% on the 24-hour chart.
