It’s still early in the Bitcoin bull market because the BTC price of $71,000 is equivalent to the $20,000 mark of the previous bull cycle, according to Willy Woo, a Bitcoin analyst and managing partner at CMCC Crest.
Woo’s Bitcoin price model upper bound is $337,000
Bitcoin breached the record $71,000 mark on March 11, three days after Ether surpassed the $4,000 mark for the first time since 2021.
Despite Bitcoin surpassing $71,000, the bull cycle is only starting, according to Woo’s price model, which is based on a composite of various metrics set to gauge investor behavior. Woo wrote in a March 11 post on X:
“BTC at 71k puts us *here* in visual of the upper and lower bound models. The upper bound right now is $337k. So this bull market is still early, equivalent to 20k of last cycle.”
Furthermore, the Bitcoin Macro Index broke the upper blue band this week, which signals that “we are in a full fundamentals-driven bull market,” noted Woo, sharing the chart below.
Crypto market peak by late 2024?
Meanwhile, the current bull market dynamics might result in an earlier macro top compared with previous cycles, argued analyst Rekt Capital. He wrote in a March 11 X post:
“If the accelerated perspective turns out to be true, then the next bull market peak may thus occur in 266 – 315 days. That’s December 2024 or February 2025.”
Additionally, Bitcoin analyst CryptoCoin also expects Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to accelerate by as much as one year. The analyst wrote in a March 11 X post:
“With #Bitcoin entering price discovery mode and new ATHs a year earlier than usual, we may be witnessing the death of the 4-year cycle. Our before, perfectly structured cycles would have called for a top late 2025, but we seem to now be right on track for a top late 2024.”
Another analyst paints $170,000 BTC price target
According to pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst Dave the Wave, Bitcoin could rally toward the $170,000 mark by May if the bullish momentum continues, based on technical indicators, such as the weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Traders often use the MACD to assess the potential entry and exit points. The pseudonymous analyst wrote in a March 11 X post:
“If the nascent parabola were to continue into a full-blown parabola, an argument for nearly 170K in May.”
However, these price targets are becoming modest in the current bull market. For example, Cathie Wood said on March 7 that ARK Invest’s long-term Bitcoin price target is “well above” $1 million.
“That target — it was before the SEC gave us the green light, and I think that was a major milestone, and it has pulled forward the timeline,” said Wood, referring to the regulatory approval of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States.
